Estimating sectoral COVID-19 economic losses in the Philippines using nighttime light and electricity consumption data.

Introduction: Economic loss estimation is critical for policymakers to craft policies that balance economic and health concerns during pandemic emergencies. However, this task is time-consuming and resource-intensive, posing challenges during emergencies. Method: To address this, we proposed using electricity consumption (EC) and nighttime lights (NTL) datasets to estimate the total, commercial, and industrial economic losses from COVID-19 lockdowns in the Philippines. Regression models were employed to establish the relationship of GDP with EC and NTL. Then, models using basic statistics and weather data were developed to estimate the counterfactual EC and NTL, from which counterfactual GDP was derived. The difference between the actual and the counterfactual GDP from 2020 to 2021 yielded economic loss. Results: This paper highlights three findings. First, the regression model results established that models based on EC (adj-R2 ≥ 0.978) were better at explaining GDP than models using NTL (adj-R2 ≥ 0.663); however, combining both EC and NTL improved the prediction (adj-R2 ≥ 0.979). Second, counterfactual EC and NTL could be estimated using models based on statistics and weather data explaining more than 81% of the pre-pandemic values. Last, the estimated total loss amounted to 2.9 trillion PhP in 2020 and 3.2 trillion PhP in 2021. More than two-thirds of the losses were in the commercial sector as it responded to both policies and the COVID-19 case surge. In contrast, the industrial sector was affected primarily by the lockdown implementation. Discussion: This method allowed monitoring of economic losses resulting from long-term and large-scale hazards such as the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings can serve as empirical evidence for advocating targeted strategies that balance public health and the economy during pandemic scenarios.

Impact of retrofitting work on vulnerability reduction of local buildings in Kabul, Afghanistan.

Rapid urbanisation of Afghan cities without proper construction regulation has exposed their population to a high risk of damage from disasters such as earthquakes. With the growing construction of local non-engineered buildings and an existing level of hazard of 0.8 g, a high risk of casualties and building damage threatens Kabul in the event of a disaster. This study reports and evaluates a recent retrofitting project in Kabul City by 'Project for City Resilience', carried out under the supervision of the United Nation Human Settlements Program (UN-Habitat) for 48 retrofitted sun-dried clay brick masonry buildings in Kabul. The project was executed by local masons and welders who were trained as a part of the project, and the main tasks included installation of an additional steel frame, additional reinforced concrete foundation ring, ceiling replacement and wall strengthening (via mesh and plaster). After a visual assessment of retrofitted buildings considering the original retrofitting design and actual work done, a vulnerability index for retrofitted buildings was developed based on a behaviour modifier factor, which was assigned to each retrofitting activity using a combination of values and a proportion of scores for each retrofitting activity. The results indicate that training of local masons and welders to undertake retrofitting activities could decrease the damage ratio by 15% - 20% for peak ground acceleration values of 0.3 g and higher. The methods mentioned in this study can be used to make existing sun-dried clay brick masonry buildings sufficiently resistant to earthquakes of moderate-to-severe intensity.

Earthquake loss estimation of residential buildings in Bantul regency, Indonesia.

Bantul regency in 2006 had experienced considerable earthquake and suffered many casualties. The factors such as high population density and lack of seismic design of residential buildings in Bantul besides its location in a high seismic region have increased its vulnerability to earthquake disasters that can lead to a widespread economic losses and casualties. This research aims to capture earthquake risk in Bantul towards economic losses and casualties by using risk curve. Risk curve is a combination of several sources from literatures containing hazard curve and vulnerability curve together with exposure. The result showed that the expected economic loss in 50 years for residential building is $647.22 million; however, the highest value of economic losses shows the value up to $7600m which occurs in earthquake of 7.15 MW scale. The same worst-case scenario caused the casualties up to 49 000 people at night-time and 15 000 people at daytime. The result established that confined masonry building type conduces the highest value of economic losses and timber frame building shows the highest vulnerability to the earthquake disaster than other building types. Furthermore, in order to reduce the risk, we applied the hypothetical policy to build a simple earthquake-resistant house called Simple Instant Healthy House. The result indicates that this mitigation policy can effectively reduce both economic losses and casualties.

Promoting seismic retrofit implementation through "nudge": using warranty as a driver.

This article proposes a new type of warranty policy that applies the "nudge" concept developed by Thaler and Sunstein to encourage homeowners in Japan to implement seismic retrofitting. Homeowner adaptation to natural disasters through loss reduction measures is known to be inadequate. To encourage proactive risk management, the "nudge" approach capitalizes on how choice architecture can influence human decision-making tendencies. For example, people tend to place more value on a warranty for consumer goods than on actuarial value. This article proposes a "warranty for seismic retrofitting" as a "nudge" policy that gives homeowners the incentive to adopt loss reduction measures. Under such a contract, the government guarantees all repair costs in the event of earthquake damage to the house if the homeowner implements seismic retrofitting. To estimate the degree to which a warranty will increase the perceived value of seismic retrofitting, we use field survey data from 1,200 homeowners. Our results show that a warranty increases the perceived value of seismic retrofitting by an average of 33%, and an approximate cost-benefit analysis indicates that such a warranty can be more economically efficient than an ex ante subsidy. Furthermore, we address the failure of the standard expected utility model to explain homeowners' decisions based on warranty evaluation, and explore the significant influence of ambiguity aversion on the efficacy of seismic retrofitting and nonanalytical factors such as feelings or trust.